Racing Condition: The Last Races Isn't Everything

Racing Condition and Favorites

Here's an outline of procedures that should be followed by handicapper in evaluating the present form or racing condition of a horse.

Racing condition or form is one thing, class or quality is another. The two concepts should be kept separate in handicappers thinking.

There are two main clues present for handicapper to use when he is endeavoring to estimate the present race condition of a horse.

One is his actual record in the recent past, within a week or two or even three. The other is the way he has been working out in the morning.

Of these two the record in actual racing is the more reliable index, but morning training, the times and the way they were accomplished, also have value.


Avoid The Chalk

Recent form is typically how the favorite is selected in most races. If you look at the past performance of the typical favorite he either won or finished very close in his last race.

As each short priced apparently "lock" horse goes to the post he may seem a cinch, backed by the expert opinion in all public money, but over the course of a hundred or thousand such choices enough of them will lose to consume more the profit than if your bets to win at the short prices paid by favorites.

A great part of really sound handicapping seems to be jettisoned by selectors and public alike in figuring races day-to-day, to the exclusion of everything except the apparent present form.

To do this is to estimate a horse only in terms of his last race, stead of enough races to give a line on his real quality. The practice is unsound from the angle of price, and also unsound handicapping.

It is very easy to develop handicapping ability to a point that the player in the average race can detect the probable favorite, the horse also endorsed by the tipsters, and players, because he looks best on a superficial scrutiny.

To many players stop at this point, mislead themselves into thinking they're good because they so often an agreement with the experts, and keep on losing money on public choices until their broke or quit.

A successful player has developed his handicapping ability until he has enough confidence in his judgment to pick his own horses and back his own selections with money, particularly when he disagrees with the tipsters and public alike, for that is when he knows is going to get a fair or good price the price that will show a profit over prolonged series of aspects.

The handicapper who merely pretends to pick his own horses, refusing to play what he likes unless most of the tipsters and the public are in agreement, is licked before the starts, whether he knows it or not. He might as well back favorites at random or follow any single tipster or consensus, and lose money.

Over emphasizing present form handicapping will put the handicapper on short priced horses that will show loss over a period of time. If a short price favorite really does figure to win, really does figure best, pass the race, because prices of the sort never will pull you in the out long run.

But if the public choice does not look the best with an individual player who knows he can handicap, then let him refuse to be influenced by others and back his own judgment with his own money.

The only question is the accuracy of his own judgment, at least he knows price will be right and that he's taking in advantage of the overlay if his opinion is right.